Arizona Real Estate Specialists

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Monument to the Unelected- The Celebration of 2nd Place

Monument to the Unelected - Scottsdale Arizona

There is a home in Scottsdale that caught my attention.

It would be hard to miss.

It's on Thomas Road, just east of the 101 freeway.

Someone has a yard full of political signs.

These aren't just any signs.

These are signs dedicated to the second place finishers.

Among them is one that explains it all.

It reads, "Monument to the Unelected."

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It reminds me of a book by Pat Conroy.

He's famous for books such as "The Great Santini", "The Prince of Tides" and "The Lords of Discipline".

The lesser known book is "My Losing Season". It's autobiographical.

In it he recalls being on a basketball team at the Citadel. Though they won a few games, they lost even more.

In sports, we all find out, coming in second can be a lonely experience.

Here's a quote from the book:

"Winning makes you think you'll always get the girl, land the job, deposit the million-dollar check, win the promotion, and grow accustomed to a life of answered prayers. Loss is fiercer, a more uncompromising teacher, coldhearted but clear-eyed in its understanding that life is more dilemma than game and more trial than free pass."

I suppose you could look at most industries and say we're finding fewer winning opportunities.

Now is the time to see life with more clarity. It's a gift.

So... I'm glad there's a person out there who is showing the love to those who came close. They didn't reach the summit... but got close. Very often the journey is better than the destination. For each of these, I hope that has proved to be true.

And for the present and future second place finishers I hope, in this age of character building, we're polishing a few diamonds.

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Chuck Willman is an Arizona based real estate agent. www.AZvest.com

Photo courtesy of my camera phone.

It's Official- Baseball's Second Season is Here - Arizona Cactus League

Cactus League

There's just nothing quite like baseball.

Wouldn't it be great if you had a wide selection of teams to watch... not just those nearby?

And... wouldn't it be better if it didn't cost so much?

Well... we're spoiled here in Arizona.

We have fourteen teams to choose from.

Same rosters- a whole lot less money.

Plus... the weather is perfect!

This is the time of year that we get to brag about.

It's fun to take the whole family to enjoy a laid-back major league baseball experience.

If you'd like to know more, check out the official site of the Cactus League.

Upgrading beyond market value

Money Issues by Dani SimmondsI'm writing this post near Phoenix Arizona and toward the end of February of 2009.

The reason I say this is because sometimes people find a blog post that speaks authoritatively about a topic- providing a helpful rule of thumb that would appear to apply generally.

This post might be one of those- however, I must clarify; the current conditions make this phenomena stand out.

What am I addressing? Simple- the benefit of upgrades... are they worth it?

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Many feel that their home will have more value if they upgrade. In general this is true.

However- we seldom see a case where the cost of the upgrade actually increases the value of a home by more than the money spent on the upgrade.

This is true now more than ever.

I've shown two homes in the area in the past few days that illustrate this point.

One home has a pool, spa, sports court, media room, track, outdoor play room and upgrades throughout. The upgrades cost in the neighborhood (I'm estimating) of $180k. Problem... there are homes in the neighborhood that cost that much (yes... the competing homes cost less than the cost of the upgrades alone.) This is a home that will be of great personal value to whomever buys it... it's just not a home that will appraise for the amount the seller is seeking.

These days, at least in Phoenix, upgrades add very little to the value of a home.

The second home was gutted and remodeled by an expert. The owner's raw costs exceeded $50k. His time/labor costs would have been more than twice that. He's in the business... his materials were discounted and his labor costs were $0. Everything is new and deluxe. There's an outdoor barbecue, outdoor fireplace and pizza oven. There's also a cabana and solid decorative walls with decorative lighting within the masonry. Inside is just as impressive. Everything has been redone. Every inch of the place has a new finish (stone, tile, wood, paper or paint). The refrigerator alone is six feet wide... it cost as much as a good used car. The home is selling (via shortsale) for $175k. That's also the neighborhood comp price. His upgrades are worth, essentially, nothing. I know- it sounds hard to believe... but that's what the bank is saying.

In both cases, these homes will be worth more more sentimentally then they do on paper. The new owners will be landing a "steal" ... but not according to appraisal. Each home has a market value close to any other home in the neighborhood that has just sold... even if the home sold at drastic foreclosure rate.

Welcome to the new retail. Upgrades hold little weight in the appraisal because there are so many other homes in inventory. The best way to know which house is best for you is to tour them. You're bound to find a few that are a much better deal... afterall- you're the one who is going to live there- not the bank... and not the appraiser.

Yes... these are strange times indeed. I wonder what these homes will be worth when the rate of foreclosure diminishes. As inventory returns to normal levels, these upgrades will begin to show more worth on paper.

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Photo Credit: "Money Issues" by Dani Simmonds

A young farmer's guide to life - learning the law of the harvest

Shovel by Viva Tung


It was another Saturday wasted... that was the sentiment, my brother and I had as we woke up just past sunrise.

This Saturday would be ground prep. We'd clear the deepest portion of the back yard of any debris and then start shoveling away the grass and weeds. Later in the day we'd create furrows and, if time permitted, start the planting.

While others were off playing football, baseball, basketball or any other pick-up game that could be had in the neighborhood, we would be toiling in the soil. Two child laborers- slaves to a dad who insisted we experience the things he had. That would be unlikely. He was born on an expansive farm. We just had the backyard. But... he had a tractor. We had hand tools. I tried to discern who had it harder... but it was a pointless exercise.

Turns out farming was hard work. He farmed because he had to. We farmed because he wanted us to. We were sure the authorities would be on our side if we dared report him.

Such was the life of the young farmer. My brother and I had been unwilling students to a head master who was wanting to instruct us on "big picture" items. When we asked why it was that we were out there planting crops in the backyard when such items could be had for a very low price from the grocery store, our father said he was teaching us the law of the harvest. This was a concept so huge I didn't even bother looking it up in the dictionary.

Clearly the lesson was lost on us. We just saw lost play time and blisters... or crops lost to rabbits- the sun and the occaisional rain that turned our furrows to slop.

We planted things that didn't exactly place high on the tasty list. Things like cucumbers, squash, radishes, tomatoes and green beans. We did, however, convince our dad to let us branch out. We included corn, lettuce and (while he wasn't looking) a pack of watermelon seeds into the mix for the year two garden.

Though we never really cozied up to the idea of gardening- we figured we may as well grow stuff that we wouldn't have to hold our noses to eat.

So- each Saturday we'd shovel and cultivate and weed and wait.

Then the amazing would happen. We would see the seeds sprout... and then burst into a sight to behold.

That little garden of ours produced more vegetables than we could consume. It gave mom an idea to take our tutelage to the next level. If dad could teach us the law of the harvest- mom could teach us how it applied to commerce. She said we could earn money by selling the veggies. We were skeptical- but we saw there was no convincing her otherwise.

We loaded up a baby buggy with items we detested most. And we priced them low enough to ensure we could return home with nothing but a box of coins and dollar bills. We'd wheel the baby buggy from house to house- people would answer the door with curiosity. They'd be expecting to look at a baby... instead, beneath the protective overhang they'd see squash and cucumbers... items that could be theirs for five cents each.

Surprisingly the plan worked. It took little time sell the inventory.

If dad had taught us how to work, mom had taught us how to benefit monetarily.

We grew to not only enjoy the harvest... we discovered that a salad made entirely from our hard work- combined with nature doing what it does, produced flavors that could not be matched by any restaurant. And... when a new movie hit the local theater- we learned that popcorn tasted better when you paid from your own pocket.

I've thought of this experience many times over the years... and more recently now than ever.

We live in a time when food comes in a package. We can pick it up at a drive through... or pop it frozen into a microwave. If the evolutionary scale of food consumption could be charted we could see the early stages- hunting and gathering; followed by the next path- planting and harvest... then lead to where we are now- processing and marketing. Many of us understand step three far better than we do steps one and two. In every business we are now learning that it takes harder work... more pre-planning and better cultivating to reap a good harvest.

Looking back on that time I see that my parents had done a good thing. We *had* learned the law of the harvest. We reaped what we had sown... more plainly- our labors were rewarded in abundance.

Photo Credit: "Shovel" by Viva Tung

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When not reflecting on his childhood, Chuck Willman can be found helping match buyers and sellers in Arizona real estate. www.AZvest.com

Snapshot of the Real Estate Market: Let's Take Control of This!

This is a nice discussion that was generated by Mirela Monte.

She's requesting basic numberical market data from around the country.

Your contribution will create a snapshot that could provide insight into the nation's housing situation from both a micro and macro level.

I urge you to add your observations.

Via Mirela Monte, Your Myrtle Beach Connection:

 

 

How is your market today? 

 

Generalizations don't work.  We get enough bad news from the media.  Our politicians don't seem to understand the Reality and Ramifications of Real Estate Activity either.  We are fractioned and confused. 

 

Let's change all that!  Let's get together and create our own accurate data.  Here is my proposal:  Let's answer the following questions on a monthly basis.  We can create our own Real Estate Forum and measure the Real Estate temperature of various areas.  These questions will help you understand your own, unique market and allow the rest of us to have a better overall picture of what is happening and how it compares to our neck of the woods (or strip of sand as in my case):  

 

 

•1.                 How many properties do you have for sale in your MLS?

•2.                 How does that figure compare with last year's and the year before?

•3.                 What is the sales activity per month on single family homes, condos, multi-family, land and commercial?

•4.                 What is the absorption rate for all of the above?

•5.                 How does that compare with last year and the year before?

•6.                 How do January's sales figures compare with January of last year?  How does that compare with November and December of last year?

•7.                 What is the best selling product in your market?  What is the worst selling product?  Why?

•8.                 How much of your market is foreclosure related?  How many foreclosures have occurred in your market in January and February?

•9.               What are your observations on local financing?

•10.            What are your observations on local appraisals?

•11.            What is the best advice you would give a Buyer in your market?

•12.            What is the best advice you would give a Seller in your market?

 

Please indicate if you intend to participate to this Forum.  Over the next few days please compile your data and post it as a comment here.  I will then copy and paste your statistics into a new blog I will be posting over the next few weeks.  With proper participation, I will continue to post these same questions every 30 days and compile monthly data based on your responses.  Please let me know what you think of this!

 

Mirela Monte, Your Myrtle Beach Real Estate Connection          

 

Proud Optimist!

Predicting What He Will Say - Obama in Phoenix

President Obama has landed in Phoenix and the New York Times is reporting what he will be talking about.

It is predicted that he will address the mounting foreclosure problem. It's no accident that Phoenix will be the backdrop. More than half of all sales in Phoenix in recent months have been of the bank-owned/short-sale variety. Ironically, the President is staying in a hotel that is facing potential foreclosure.

There are two troubled homeowners, according to the Times, that will be addressed.

1. Those who are struggling to pay their mortgage- they have loans that they can not afford.

2. Those who can pay, but their homes are worth far less than what they're paying.

The first case could be chalked up to adjusting loans, loss of income, or other factors that result from the various causes of a recessionary market. The first group will lose their home through default. The second group, an estimated balance of some ten million Americans, may choose to simply walk away.

Obviously, the problem is large... and it's not just 'a Phoenix thing'. It can be seen across America. It's a problem that's not going away. It appears that it will continue to grow until the forces of economics and time lend their sway, or, until larger powers of government and business make a few changes to their game plan.

Naturally, people will be paying attention to this speech. It will be one of the first occasions for us to see our new president in action with regard to facing this force of finance.

The news agencies have seen the first draft of the speech. A look through the various news outlets are pointing to a significant theme... they are telling us that President Obama's primary goal will be to help the first group first- the people who are facing foreclosure.

The government will become, in essence, a partner with banks. We'll spend about $50 billion of the bailout money to split the losses on loans that can be foreclosed upon. Part of the loss will be realized by the bank... the other part by the government.

There are more details- but that will be, it is predicted, the basic message.

Will this plan work?

I guess we'll find out.

What's your opinion?

President Obama Coming to Phoenix to Reveal His Plan to Stem Foreclosures

Pretend you're the President of a company and you're going to present a plan that saves the company.

Do you feel any pressure- knowing the obstacles are so large?

Multiply that by millions.

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President Obama is facing challenges unlike any others in my lifetime.

There's an ongoing war and every industry in America is facing financial difficulties.

Many say that the root of the problem is housing.

So... where do you go to pitch your plan?

How about Phoenix.

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In a city named for a bird that rises from the ashes there are glimpses of the dismall...

.... and there are glimpses of hope.

As Dickens said, "the best of times" and "the worst of times."

Single family home sales are up 49%. (Arizona Republic, Feb 13, 2009, D1)

Yet foreclosures are climbing.

The median priced home in the valley In January of 2008 was $243k.

Now it's $146k.

That's a 44% drop.

(Arizona Republic, Feb 13, 2009, D4)

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The Stimulus package has been debated ad-nauseum.

I'm not going to deal with that here.

I'm in real estate so I have these concerns:

  1. Stemming the downward spiral in home pricing.
  2. Decreasing unemployment.
  3. Curbing the foreclosures.

To the last point, three banks have decided to suspend foreclosures for the immediate future. Bank of America, Citicorp and JP Morgan Chase have declared that they'll put things on hold for a while.

As the article "Obama to Unveil Plan to Stem Foreclosures" states:

"A trial balloon floated this week suggests that Obama will follow the suggestions of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair, who thinks banks must take some losses and get owners of distressed mortgages into a monthly mortgage payment that amounts to somewhere from 31 to 38 percent of their monthly after-tax income."

As a person who believes that free market forces should have more sway than man-made quick-fixes, I'm somewhat concerned about large scale spending plans. After all, tax breaks and spending require re-payment. However, we're also in one of those phases where one may argue that the large entities that broke the system need to pay to fix it. My largest concern is that the medication may cover some symptoms and prolong the ailment. Witness Japan's willingness to spend their way through a long and labored market downturn... perhaps lending to a protracted recovery.

Regardless of the differences in economic ideology- I'm all ears for what our president has to say. He's coming to my city and I'm happy to see he appears to be hard at work. I wish him very well with his presentation.

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Chuck Willman is a real estate agent based in the Phoenix metro area.

If we had a billion dollars- Mesa Arizona voters to vote on Hotel/Convention

Gaylord Entertainment Rendering - Mesa, AZ

Rendering of Gaylord Entertainment & DMB project for Mesa, Arizona (from "yes on 300")

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Mesa, Arizona is an anomaly.

It's large.

To be precise, it's the 38th largest city in America.

That means there are several states in the union that don't have a city as large as Mesa.

But Mesa lacks something.

Overshadowed by the bigger cities of Phoenix and Tucson, Mesa is looking for something beyond the bland.

I don't know if I should even mention this, but Mesa just earned another distinction that cements this.

Forbes named Mesa one of the ten most boring cities in America.

Ouch. That hurt.

However, I doubt most of America knows about the article... more likely- most were too bored to care.

So... what to do?

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Mesa has a great deal to offer beyond friendly people, great fall/spring/winter weather, access to several lakes, affordable housing, and winter league baseball.

And, if voters have their say, Mesa will house the state's (nation's?) most compelling new project.

Gaylord Entertainment has proposed to build the state's largest hotel and conference center in Mesa.

The price tag for this?

A billion dollars. (To the penny? I always wonder about these conveniently priced initiatives.)

Gaylord Entertainment and DMB have developed a campaign to woo Mesa voters to finish what the city council started... that is... to approve a bed tax agreement that will bring the project to the go-stage.

These two partners in development claim that this project will:

  • Create 8,000 construction jobs
  • 4,000 permanent jobs
  • $12 million in construction fees for Mesa
  • $5.5 million in annual sales tax for city services
  • Monies come from tourists not taxpayers

That's the sales pitch.

I'm for it.

It would be, I dunno, not boring.

Life in Boomtown- Queen Creek's 604% Growth

boomtown

I spent a couple of my High School Years in north Texas. The official name of the city is Burkburnett- the pet name was "Boomtown". This moniker stemmed from the oil boom of the early 1900's.

I suppose you could lend the Boomtown name to any city with explosive growth.

At least that's what Business Week has done.

In their Article, "America's Biggest Boomtowns", they've made a case for the towns and cities across America that have attracted an ever increasing quantity of newcomers. These cities were evaluated for a number of statistics dating to the new century.

Listed fifth is Queen Creek, Arizona.

Among the items of note are:

 

  • Household growth (2000-08): 604%
  • Household income growth (2000-08): 12%
  • Home value: $154,000

 

Life in "the QC" has become a bit less rural. There are movieplexes, equestrian facilities, and large shopping developments. Most importantly, Queen Creek is very affordable.

It's one of the few place that still has a variety of new homes in an extremely affordable price range. For example, here's a new listing:

New Home:

  • 1,445 sq ft
  • 3 bedroom + den (optional 4th bedroom)
  • 2 bath
  • 2 car garage
  • Optional Bay Window
  • Vaulted Ceiling
  • Exterior Coach Lights
  • Cherry Cabinets
  • Upgraded Black Appliances: including Microwave, Side by Side Refrigerator, Oven
  • Available for immediate occupancy

Base Price: $112,290

Upgrades: $15,960

Total Price: $128,250

Discount: $23,531

Current Price: $104,719

Builder will offer 3% to cover closing costs.

Here's the best part- first time home buyers may qualify for rural housing loans- which will pay the downpayment. In other words, it's possible to have a total move-in cost of $500.

Welcome to the Boomtown. Stay a while- make yourself at home.

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Chuck Willman is an Arizona based real estate agent. 480.292.0600 - www.AZvest.com

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Boomtown lettering created with "Spell with Flickr"

Is the "Mega-Listings" REO Agent on the Verge of Extinction?

Tyranosaur by SophieIn cities where foreclosures are on the increase you'll find agents clamoring to become an REO listing agent.

They envision the possibilities: Offers galore and multiple pendings.

However, how does one break into the business?

The reality is this: There are very few agents handling the vast majority of bank owned listings.

And their responsibility is not completely rosy.

Among the issues these agents face are these:

  • They may be required to pay for power, water, plus light maintenance and fix-up.
  • They will need to do a great deal of due diligence to price, submit, re-price, counter, etc.
  • Keeping all the properties processed quickly is a must... slip up and you lose your listings.
  • Say hello to long hours and mounds of paperwork.
  • Other agents may complain about you and call you a monopolist.

I realize many agents may see the above list and say, "I'll gladly accept that challenge. Sign me up."

Around the country, especially in the high-foreclosure cities, there's a rumor mill. The rumor is this:

"Pre-approved short sales are on the way."

Currently agents will short sale a home if the owner owes more than the home is worth and is unable to keep up with the payments. Market forces dictate this. If the house meets the criteria, the agent and seller fill out the required paperwork, list the property and forward offers to the lender. The lender, if motivated, will send someone to do some due diligence. This third party will let the bank know their opinion about the home's value.

This process is cumbersome.

The longer the bank waits, the more likely the buyer will lose interest or the home could lose value.

In short- the short sale system is broken.

Banks are searching for a better way.

In my opinion (and I'm not alone) it would be better for the bank to decide a price. Then the listing can be treated much like a bank owned property. The buyer will have a better chance of purchasing the home if there are more clear indications from the selling party.

If, or when, banks decide to move to pre-approved short sales, the market should be one step closer to equilibrium. Home values will be easier to predict and fewer homes will go to foreclosure.

It's baffling to me why the banks haven't already gone ahead with this plan.

Who wins?

  • The buyer. They'll be able to feel more comfortable about their offer in terms of timing and price.
  • The home seller. Fewer will go to foreclosure- thus shaving considerable time off their credit restoration.
  • The short sale listing agent. They'll be able to provide more firm/less nebulous advice.
  • The bank. They should be able to cut the depth and length of their loss due to foreclosure.

Who loses?

  • The mega-lister. They'll have fewer listings.
  • The middle man who negotiates loan mods, investment cash deals and data exchange packages.

What's your opinion?

Are we inching toward pre-approved short sales?

Are you for or against it?

I have nothing against the mega-lister... as long as they are able to shoulder the load in a professional manner.

However, I feel we'd all be better off if the short sales process were fine-tuned.

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Chuck Willman is an Arizona based real estate agent specializing in bargain properties. www.AZvest.com.

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Photo Credit: Tyranosaur by Sophie