Arizona Real Estate Specialists

"Act surprised" ... that's the command I gave my daughters as they unknowingly became a part of my blog-marketing campaign.

Fortunately they put up with me.

OK... for about 3 seconds... and no do-overs.

This is a brief snapshot with my wrap-up of this week's market news. There's some good... some not so good but, overall I'm pleased with the direction of things.

Here are the good surprises:

• "After-tax incomes and spending show big gains" - That's the market headline from the associated press. Another quote within the article, "The Commerce Department reported that disposable incomes, the amount left after paying taxes, surged by 5.7 percent last month. It was the biggest increase since May 1975." Most of this is due to the economic stimulus package. Other good side benefits included an increase in the personal savings rate to the highest level since May of '95.

• "Existing-home sales rise 2% in May" - That's the headline from the Wall Street Journal. With an increase in sales there was also a decrease in inventory. Hmmm... so that's how supply and demand work? Though it's too early to call this a trend, it is a good sign for home sellers. The next good sign for them would be to see an increase in home prices.

Now the mixed bag:

• From Fox Business- "Enjoy the Stealth Good News" we see this nugget, "The Case-Shiller index reported last Tuesday showed home prices dropped 1.4% in April in the 20 cities tracked by the index, the smallest drop since October. More significantly, values rose in eight cities, up from two in March. And, in the 12 cities in which values did not increase, only two experienced steeper declines than in March." In other words, prices dropped less sharply than they have been. This means we may be approaching a pricing bottom... something we'll know for sure after-the-fact.

As for my market- the Phoenix Metro area... Here are the things I'm seeing from my customers:

• Shock at the competition in the bank owned properties. We've been seeing multiple offers and full time offers being rejected in some areas- mostly in the cities at the center of the valley.

• A renewed interest in condos- this market has been pretty flat and all of a sudden I have several potential buyers who like the idea of low prices/low maintenance/low transportation expenses.

• Astonishing prices on new homes. I can hardly believe it. New homes with yards in the low 100's.

Well... these are a few of the surprises in my market... do you have a report from yours?

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Chuck Willman is an Arizona real estate agent based in the Phoenix area. Looking for a home in Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert, Queen Creek? Reach Chuck at 480.292.0600 or www.AZvest.com.

I love good design.

I would love to be better at creating it.

Fortunately there are many creative people who specialize... better yet, they share.

The good people at Design Reviver have lived up to their billing.

They describe themselves as, "a resource for web designers. Here you will find tutorials, freebies, inspiration, and other useful information."

And they certainly have delivered in one of their latest posts, "300+ Vintage Style Textures and Photoshop Brushes."

This is from their freebies section. You'll find patterns, graphics, and textures that are hip and modern yet they harken to the vintage patterns and stylish looks of the 1920's through 1940's.

That's right... great grandma had taste!

So, if you're looking for a snazzy way to pretty-up your banners and backgrounds, this is a very good place to start.

Many congratulations to Arizona State University. The Tempe institution has achieved it's best-yet finish in the Sports Academy Director's Cup ... claiming a number four ranking among all university sports programs.

Every year the NACDA ranks each university's sports program. Results are based on national championships and placement within the polls of each athletic event. Arizona State finished in the top ten eight times while bringing home a national championship in Women's Softball, and the Men and Women's Track and Field programs.

I must congratulate ASU's VP of Athletics, Lisa Love; she has managed to build a successful program in very little time. Also, as a big Pac Ten fan I'm happy to point out that the conference claimed three of the top four positions. Not bad!

Here are this year's Top Five:

1. Stanford, 1461.00

2. UCLA, 1182.00

3. Michigan, 1160.00

4. Arizona State, 1146.00

5. Texas, 1129.5

The complete list can be found here: NACDA final standings

We purchased a tree for the edge of our lawn because we loved the yellow flowers that sometimes bloomed.

It was a narrow tree with a single trunk that barely managed to sustain the weight of the foliage.

A violent wind blew and we watched from the front window.

First the tree bent back and forth.

It bent further, then broke...

...leaving nothing more than a pointed stick in the ground.

Lazily, I snapped the remainder of the trunk from view and told myself I would dig out the roots later.

Then branches emerged from the ground. These branches looked bush-like, so I let it go.

Now we have a multiple trunked tree which is always green- with occasional yellow blooms.

This tree, with its multiple trunks, is impervious to the strongest winds.

So much in life hinges on such strength- the ability to weather the tempest and to remain upright.

I like the analogy of the many trunks.

Each real estate transaction stands on the strength of diverse trunks. My happiest clients have found more than a trustworthy agent. I seek to provide, or work with, hard working loan officers, trustworthy title agents, capable home warranty specialists and excellent builders.

Each of us, working together, can get the job done.

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Chuck Willman- Arizona Real Estate & Investment Specialist - 480.292.0600 - www.AZvest.com.

With the pending arrival of Brian DeHamer’s first child he had a decision to make:

... Decide how to make room for the newborn while finding space to move his home office.

For many the first thought is to find new housing… for others it’s to add on.

Brian met the decision half-way.

He bought a shed.

And boy did he ever deck it out.

Nearly $6,000 and quite a few man hours later- he found himself working in what could, arguably be described as the world’s coolest shed.

He did the wiring himself, which saved a great deal. The most expensive component was the shed.

Check out his story here: DeHamerspace.

Also, check out his Flickr Series:

Brian's Office on Flickr.

That's some great work Brian... your "relocation solution" is quite impressive!

During my childhood, I was fascinated by a series of commercials for a mosquitoe repellant- they were quite compelling.

A man would stick his arm into a "cage" full of thirsty mosquitoes.

They would quickly land and get to work on his unprotected arm.

I practically shouted at the screen, "don't do it! ... you'll get malaria!"

Then the man would spray on some mosquito repellant and re-insert his arm.

The mosquitos would stay clear.

The announcer would say, "They don't bite. They don't even light!"

This imagery came to mind in the past week when I began to notice a significant change in the real estate investor market. Investors are suddenly everywhere.

The popularity of the market can change so quickly. There were times when anyone who owned a hammer began to think of picking it up and doing "fix and flips". Then the market was saturated with people looking to make easy money in this manner. Then supply and demand kicked in. Too many investors- too few opportunities.

We're in a changing time. From the activity I'm seeing the investors are swooping in... not just the newcomer, but the serious institutional investor.

They, like the mosquitoes, are hovering over the scene and choosing from the many available prospects. Currently they're making offer of land to the troubled builder or the small private lender who holds too many notes. They're taking buy-and-hold positions in land or creating leaseback arrangements with condo-conversion groups.

If you're an investor looking for opportunities in the Phoenix metro area, contact me. There are portfolios large and small to consider.

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Chuck Willman is an agent in the Phoenix metropolitan area of Arizona. Visit his site: www.AZvest.com.

During the cold war spies for the Soviet Union and the United States had opposite problems.

Their predicament could be summarized with the analogy of the black box and white noise.

The Black Box: American spies complained that there were too few people who knew what was really going on. It was if the dignitaries, the powers that be, met within a black box, made important decisions and few others had access to information.

It was almost impossible to discover what went on inside the black box... yet within those confines everything was decided. The American spies did everything they could to crack the mystery of the black box.

White Noise: Soviet spies were faced with a different problem. Information was everywhere. They had to sift through all of it to try to make sense of the situation. It seemed everyone knew something- the problem was deciding what information proved to be most valid. In science speak, this equation is called "signal to noise."

Short Sales have both conditions.

Agents who work short sales quickly discover that there are cadres of people involved in screening the short sale agent. They will give little information or contradictory information. Yet, there is a black box situation as well... this is what goes on between the loss mitigation specialist, the bank and the investor who considers purchasing the note. The agent and the client are very often left in the dark.

I don't see this changing any time soon- short of changes to the current condition, I advise clients who wish to pursue a short sale to take this into consideration:

1. Keep all of your important financial documents available. They include, among other things: recent bank records, tax returns (past two years), mortgage information, documentation for other assets (401k, stocks, etc.)
2. Stay in constant contact with your agent and the lender.
   
3. Be aware that you'll often hear conflicting information from the lender. Sometimes I wonder if I'll ever hear the same explanation twice.
4. Be prepared for a potentially long process- some short sales can drag on for many months.
5. Know that short sales are not automatic- many of them fail to produce an acceptable offer.
6. Never give false information to the lender or the agent pursuing the short sale.
7. Don't attempt to purchase another property with the intent to stop paying on your existing home... this act "buying and bailing" could lead to severe consequences.

When short sales manage to be accepted the seller is spared from the greater consequence of foreclosure. For most it will have been worth the effort. So... hang in there. Be aware of the white noise and the black box. Be patient, yet persistent ... and wish you all the best fortune through this arduous process.

Every once in a while someone will tell me something ... a "truism". These are assumed nuggets of wisdom... sage pronouncements accepted as researched fact.

I hear several variations, all postulating the same thing:

• It's an election year- government will make sure houses are affordable.

• As long as politicians own more than one home they'll protect housing.

• The President will want to keep interest rates low just before elections.

I would love to think that it were that easy.

However, we live in a free enterprise system. There are separations of powers as well as the market forces of supply and demand, counterbalanced by perception and levels of consumer confidence.

In spite of every political effort, markets will run whichever direction they care too run.

Of course, politicians have a tendency to proudly stand behind any economic progress and claim personal victory for themselves or their political affilation. Where is the same politician when markets sour? Probably pointing fingers in many directions. For the Democrats it's easy to blame the President. For the Republicans it's easy to blame Congress. For the independants it's easy to claim no responsibility. It's politics vs. capitalism... not a pretty thing to watch but very much a pretty thing to experience when it works.

Now... fast forward to last hour. We can see the political machinery hoping to live up to a truism.

The Senate overwhelmingly voted in favor of a Rescue plan. In a lopsided bipartisan vote (83-9) they hope to stimulate the housing situation by backing the FHA with $300 billion worth of home loans. With this, they intend to bring less qualified borrowers back into the buying pool. In other words, they are creating a government insured backbone of fixed rate loans for higher risk buyers.

Is it good? Time will tell. However, is anyone ready to express the motive for the vote? Here's a good quote,

[the lending measure] "would allow us to begin to put a tourniquet on the hemorrhaging of foreclosures in this country." "We need to demonstrate to people in this country that have lost an awful lot of faith in almost everything, but certainly in (Congress), that we can get something done, that we can put aside differences and make a difference in their lives".

-Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee Chairman

I'm not so jaded to completely discount the words of a politician and call it pure "spin". However, I'm also a little interested in seeing how one can strengthen the market by assuming greater financial risk. As I said, time will tell how this will play out. I'd love to hear your opinion on the latest potential legislation.

Cure or panacea? You tell me.

As a kid I always dreamed of living in a tree house.

I had seen a few and there's just something about it- a marriage between nature and domesticity.

I even tried to build one; it was a disaster.

WebUrbanist has a great article on modern treehouses that range from the modest to the deluxe.

Each one has it's own innovation and a certain quantity of charm.

Some of these houses were built by hobbyists while others were designed by innovative architectural groups.

There is even a burgeoning industry of treehouse consultants who will carry out the construction of your dream tree-home from concept to finish.

I've never seen one of these homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service yet.

I imagine it's just a matter of time.

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To find the Arizona home of your dreams visit my website: NewHomesAZ.com

Reflections from the Candyman
When one lives in a college town the employment options are limited… especially when the university is large and pricey. You’ll find yourself competing against tens of thousands of bright, capable students vying for the limited inventory of low-end jobs. As a result I took whatever job I could… anything that would pay the bills. One job, more than any other, taught me a thing or two about marketing.

I was a candy man. More accurately- I filled vending machines.

Every morning I’d arrive at the student vending warehouse… where I’d wheel my cart to my candy closet where I’d take inventory and fill the cart with hundreds of candy bars of every variety. I would then go on my route- filling dozens of machines on campus. I’d open each machine; count the remaining stock from each row and then fill the machine to the brim… making sure each row was sufficiently stocked to last until the next day.

• Snickers sell extremely well. I could stock three rows of Snickers and still run the risk of not lasting until the next day.
• Some candy bars rarely sold- Zagnuts and Zeros especially. I’d rarely devote any space to them- preferring to stock the machines with inventory that moved.
• Certain buildings had different tastes. The Nursing building was big on chocolate; the Engineering building had a weakness for Skittles.
• If I were to stock every machine in a generic fashion I would have mixed results. When I began to stock the machines with a variety that moved quickly for that area the coin bag would be heavy.

If I suspected a machine was dispensing free candy I would place a Zero or Zagnut into first postion. If you wanted a Snickers or M&M's, you were going to have to buy a "Z" candy to get to the good stuff. This bought me some time to get a repairman to the location. As a result, I had a very low opinion of any candy bar starting with the letter “z”.

Then I made a larger discovery.

The Science building liked Zagnuts. I discovered it on accident. Their machine was spitting out extra candies so I did the normal thing. I made Zagnuts the front candy for each row. It didn't work. I began to stock more Zagnuts in this location- they continued to sell well. One student stopped me and expressed his sincerest appreciation. He thanked me for listening to his request- namely to stock a better variety. I’d heard of no such request but I saw that I had a happy customer. I later heard that people began to travel from other parts of campus- they'd discovered the machine that had the Zagnuts.

Conclusion. How does this relate to real estate? If I were a Snickers-only agent I could do very well. But there are plenty of Snickers agents. I’m also the "Zagnut agent"... AND... the "Zero agent."

I’ve made a reputation among a select group- a niche that is underserved.

By specializing- going after markets that few agents know about, I’ve found my most loyal clients.

Happy clients are referring clients.

I don’t tell them this, but they’re my Zeros and Zagnuts… and it’s a great treat when I find them.

Chuck Willman- Arizona Real Estate Expert

480.292.0600

www.NewHomesAZ.com